Wed, Mar 21, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 212 | 09 | 330 |
| PIT | 216 | 112 | 211 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Carl Hagelin · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 17:31PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 19:30MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Paul Byron, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 8:19MTLNikita ScherbakSHAssists: Charles Hudon, Brett Lernout · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 14:24MTLJacob de la RoseAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 15:02PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 2:38PITDerick BrassardPPGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 18:27PITJake GuentzelAssists: Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:19MTLBrett Lernout: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 16:58MTLKarl Alzner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:14PITJamie Oleksiak: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:37MTLMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:37PITJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:09PITJake Guentzel: Holding2 min
- P2 7:10MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:39PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:05MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:42PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drouin won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Carr – Scherbak9:35
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Hudon – McCarron5:23
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen12:50
xG 0.07–0.75 (9%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Byron – Gallagher – Drouin12:59
xG 0.54–1.28 (30%)attempts 12–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Lernout15:07
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Alzner – Juulsen14:43
xG 0.59–1.05 (36%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Petry – Reilly15:52
xG 0.50–1.74 (22%)attempts 12–25goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin12:40
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:19
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Kuhnhackl – Jooris4:03
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Sheary9:46
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak14:55
xG 1.29–0.91 (59%)attempts 15–18goals 2–1
- Maatta – Ruhwedel12:15
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:42
xG 0.91–0.61 (60%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).