Thu, Mar 22, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 115 | 113 | 336 |
| PHI | 115 | 210 | 111 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 13:53NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Jesper Fast, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:46PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:38PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Radko Gudas, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 17:03NYRJesper FastAssists: Ryan Sproul, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 0:08PHIOskar LindblomGWGAssists: Nolan Patrick, Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–4
- P3 1:28NYRJesper FastAssists: Rob O'Gara, John Gilmour · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:56PHIJordan Weal: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:31PHIMatt Read: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:31NYRMika Zibanejad: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:50NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:06NYRKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:21PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Zibanejad11:22
xG 1.38–0.51 (73%)attempts 21–11goals 2–1
- McLeod – Spooner – Buchnevich3:00
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- McLeod – Desharnais – Carey3:39
xG 0.02–0.15 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Spooner – Vesey – Buchnevich8:42
xG 0.39–0.60 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSproul – Skjei14:52
xG 1.39–1.15 (55%)attempts 21–18goals 0–1
- O'Gara – Gilmour11:25
xG 0.80–0.80 (50%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Pionk17:15
xG 0.48–0.92 (35%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick11:46
xG 1.11–0.38 (75%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Read – Laughton7:42
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal9:30
xG 0.87–0.54 (62%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Lehtera2:05
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Sanheim13:54
xG 1.85–0.87 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas14:34
xG 0.92–0.42 (69%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov12:54
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).