Thu, Mar 22, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 6, Ottawa Senators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 118 | 18 | 412 | 638 |
| OTT | 09 | 013 | 213 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Pontus Aberg, Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 5:10EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ty Rattie · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 4:43OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Cody Ceci, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 4:51EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 5:29EDMTy RattieAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 6:34EDMDrake CaggiulaPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Pontus Aberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 14:23OTTFilip ChlapikAssists: Marian Gaborik, Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 16:40EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.10 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:24EDMMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P2 7:57OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:07OTTFilip Chlapik: Holding2 min
- P2 16:45OTTBen Harpur: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:43EDMEthan Bear: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:35OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:34OTTZack Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:39
xG 0.93–0.30 (75%)attempts 17–10goals 4–0
- Aberg – Draisaitl – Caggiula10:56
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Lucic – Strome – Puljujarvi9:09
xG 0.35–0.34 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Pakarinen – Khaira – Slepyshev8:27
xG 0.05–0.35 (13%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse18:16
xG 1.22–0.64 (66%)attempts 25–17goals 4–1
- Russell – Bear14:05
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Benning – Auvitu12:01
xG 0.18–0.37 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Smith – McCormick2:33
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Ryan – Chlapik3:35
xG 0.17–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Burrows – Ryan – Pageau2:33
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi7:02
xG 0.09–0.26 (25%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Chabot2:15
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Claesson6:05
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Ceci – Wolanin12:28
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).