Fri, Mar 23, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 111 | 27 | 324 |
| BUF | 011 | 010 | 014 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:56MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Jacob de la Rose, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 18:45MTLPaul ByronENAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Charles Hudon · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–0
- P3 19:16MTLBrendan GallagherENAssists: Logan Shaw · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:55BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:00BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:58MTLNikita Scherbak: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:53MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Drouin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Gallagher – Drouin12:35
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Shaw – Hudon – Scherbak10:02
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen12:18
xG 0.40–0.74 (35%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – Carr8:11
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Benn3:01
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Lernout13:10
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Alzner – Juulsen15:20
xG 0.50–0.74 (40%)attempts 7–19goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Girgensons – Eichel11:44
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Nolan – Larsson2:33
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nolan – Baptiste – Rodrigues6:11
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Okposo – Larsson4:51
xG 0.04–0.10 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Antipin9:35
xG 0.38–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Guhle – Nelson16:35
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen16:32
xG 0.68–0.98 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).