Fri, Mar 23, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 2, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 14 | 06 | 16 | 02 | 218 |
| WPG | 117 | 116 | 08 | 11 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51ANADerek GrantPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Marcus Pettersson · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 6:46WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:45WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 10:17ANANick RitchieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 3:16WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:05WPGJoel Armia: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:10ANAMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min
- P2 5:09WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:28ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Chimera – Kelly – Vermette2:46
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase2:39
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Rakell10:24
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:35
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lindholm – Pettersson11:25
xG 0.28–0.40 (42%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Holzer – Fowler3:08
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm5:49
xG 0.06–0.30 (16%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor14:40
xG 1.33–0.50 (73%)attempts 23–5goals 1–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Laine12:37
xG 0.74–0.16 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Copp9:51
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Lowry – Armia – Tanev8:53
xG 0.27–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Morrissey16:02
xG 1.43–0.29 (83%)attempts 33–5goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien10:41
xG 1.11–0.04 (96%)attempts 21–2goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey4:04
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).