Sat, Mar 24, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 011 | 010 | 112 | 07 | 0 | 140 |
| COL | 113 | 09 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:52COLCarl SoderbergPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 1:15VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. VGK David Perron stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. VGK Erik Haula stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 6. COL Gabriel Landeskog scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:01VGKJon Merrill: Holding2 min
- P1 12:21VGKErik Haula: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:34COLBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:10VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:27VGKRyan Carpenter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Carpenter – Tuch7:46
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula13:12
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Karlsson – Marchessault9:20
xG 0.41–0.69 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek5:44
xG 0.05–0.34 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Theodore18:44
xG 0.46–0.19 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Merrill – Hunt10:45
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt15:26
xG 0.48–0.86 (36%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:04
xG 1.26–0.46 (73%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost5:57
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Bourque – Compher – Jost2:03
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Nieto – Toninato2:45
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nemeth7:09
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Alt3:16
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nemeth2:45
xG 0.09–0.03 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).