Sat, Mar 24, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 017 | 010 | 138 |
| SJS | 29 | 114 | 210 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52SJSBrenden DillonAssists: Chris Tierney, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 9:06SJSJannik HansenGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Barclay Goodrow · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 12:17CGYMichael StoneAssists: Micheal Ferland, Chris Stewart · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 8:26SJSEvander KaneSHAssists: Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 10:09SJSJustin BraunAssists: Logan Couture, Melker Karlsson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 12:10SJSEvander KaneAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brenden Dillon · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (15)
- P2 1:59SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:14CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min
- P2 6:59SJSKevin Labanc: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:17SJSBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:26CGYDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:00CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:00SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:00SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:15SJSEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:15CGYTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:15CGYTravis Hamonic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:15SJSEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:13CGYMark Giordano: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:02SJSBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:02CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Kane
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Frolik – Backlund11:05
xG 0.81–0.22 (79%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lazar – Bennett10:12
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Stewart – Ferland – Jankowski9:15
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Glass – Shore – Hathaway8:04
xG 0.36–0.78 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Kulak16:52
xG 0.99–0.84 (54%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
- Stone – Kulak2:02
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Giordano – Hamilton15:32
xG 0.80–0.97 (45%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Meier4:03
xG 0.93–0.03 (97%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Tierney – Karlsson – Labanc3:53
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Boedker – Hertl8:49
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Tierney – Labanc – Meier5:53
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo11:42
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Braun15:41
xG 0.74–0.54 (58%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Martin – DeMelo2:23
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).