Sat, Mar 24, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 6, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 310 | 110 | 210 | 630 |
| MTL | 19 | 15 | 27 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:35MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Jacob de la Rose · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 11:11WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 14:49WSHTom WilsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 18:11WSHTom WilsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 4:52WSHJay BeagleAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Alex Chiasson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 19:58MTLCharles HudonAssists: Jordie Benn, Logan Shaw · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 1:10WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 4:52WSHJakub JerabekAssists: Andre Burakovsky, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–2
- P3 9:28MTLCharles HudonAssists: Mike Reilly, Logan Shaw · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–3
- P3 18:03MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jeff Petry · Deflected, 0.15 xG6–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:35MTLLogan Shaw: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:25MTLNikita Scherbak: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:49WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P3 1:00MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:19WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:05WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drouin won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Chiasson – Stephenson8:42
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson14:01
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky11:10
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana7:26
xG 0.17–0.55 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov17:11
xG 0.81–0.43 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 1–2
- Carlson – Kempny14:22
xG 0.73–0.58 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Orpik – Jerabek12:48
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen11:33
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – McCarron – Carr8:14
xG 0.30–0.34 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Shaw – Hudon – Scherbak9:32
xG 0.14–0.43 (25%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Byron – Gallagher – Drouin11:27
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly15:11
xG 0.87–0.49 (64%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Alzner – Juulsen13:37
xG 0.19–0.31 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Lernout17:33
xG 0.21–0.91 (18%)attempts 8–19goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).