Sat, Mar 24, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 18 | 311 | 524 |
| OTT | 112 | 08 | 116 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34CARPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Valentin Zykov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 9:38OTTBobby RyanAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 17:19CARBrock McGinnAssists: Klas Dahlbeck, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 8:29CARNoah HanifinGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Valentin Zykov · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 9:37CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 16:34OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Mike Hoffman, Magnus Paajarvi · Snap, 0.27 xG4–2
- P3 19:25CARJordan StaalENAssists: Justin Williams, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:38CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:32CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:19OTTFilip Chlapik: Delaying game bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Zykov – Aho11:11
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Skinner – Di Giuseppe – Lindholm10:23
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Williams – Staal – McGinn10:57
xG 0.17–0.46 (27%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Nordstrom – Ryan9:40
xG 0.02–0.42 (5%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – van Riemsdyk8:42
xG 0.73–0.05 (94%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Fleury – McKeown9:34
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Slavin8:43
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Dzingel – Pageau10:46
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Burrows – Ryan – Pageau3:47
xG 0.27–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Hoffman – Duchene4:09
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi7:46
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Chabot11:03
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
- Borowiecki – Claesson7:02
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ceci – Wolanin6:22
xG 0.28–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).