Sat, Mar 24, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 05 | 06 | 120 |
| MIN | 06 | 214 | 210 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37NSHRyan JohansenAssists: P.K. Subban, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 2:50MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Marcus Foligno, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 13:45MINNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Ryan Murphy · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P3 1:29MINJason ZuckerAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 18:19MINZach PariseENAssists: Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:06MINCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:31NSHFilip Forsberg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:34NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:39NSHScott Hartnell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:08NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:26MINDevan Dubnyk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:24MINNick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:24NSHScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:28NSHAnthony Bitetto: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Salomaki – Sissons4:47
xG 0.67–0.13 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala10:42
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:44
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Bonino – Hartman8:28
xG 0.02–0.29 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm10:56
xG 1.02–0.75 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Subban – Josi5:19
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm3:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Coyle2:26
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek9:34
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle9:23
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Niederreiter6:58
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Murphy15:26
xG 1.27–0.66 (66%)attempts 16–18goals 2–1
- Prosser – Seeler10:48
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba15:42
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).