Sun, Mar 25, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Boston Bruins 2, Minnesota Wild 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 012 | 112 | 03 | 11 | 228 |
| MIN | 011 | 08 | 16 | 00 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:15BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 9:20MINMikko KoivuAssists: Mathew Dumba, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 0:28BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:17BOSTorey Krug: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:52BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:35MINNick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:42MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak15:06
xG 0.42–0.12 (77%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Nash – Wingels – Heinen10:30
xG 0.20–0.17 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari7:04
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Gionta – Krejci – Donato10:51
xG 0.32–0.54 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo12:51
xG 0.48–0.17 (73%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk16:41
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Holden – Carlo3:27
xG 0.02–0.03 (35%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek7:41
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund7:32
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund4:53
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter6:43
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Prosser – Seeler9:36
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba21:34
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 13–23goals 1–1
- Brodin – Murphy17:04
xG 0.56–0.59 (48%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).