Sun, Mar 25, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 5, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 14 | 322 | 11 | 538 |
| EDM | 012 | 314 | 16 | 00 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:46EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:05ANAJosh MansonAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:44EDMTy RattieAssists: Matt Benning, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 18:18EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ethan Bear, Jujhar Khaira · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 1:55ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 5:51ANACorey PerryAssists: Cam Fowler, Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 12:42EDMEthan BearPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 18:31ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Brandon Montour, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–4
- OT 1:21ANAHampus LindholmGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:35ANAChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:24ANAAdam Henrique: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:45EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:41ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P2 12:15EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:00ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell15:36
xG 1.20–0.89 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:11
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase9:40
xG 1.32–1.13 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Chimera – Kelly – Grant3:32
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Montour16:42
xG 1.76–1.10 (61%)attempts 22–18goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm18:05
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Pettersson9:34
xG 0.54–1.22 (31%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Strome – Puljujarvi9:40
xG 1.60–1.08 (60%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Aberg – Khaira – Draisaitl3:02
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pakarinen – Khaira – Slepyshev6:36
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Aberg – Draisaitl – Caggiula9:57
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Bear14:07
xG 1.22–0.90 (58%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
- Nurse – Bear2:21
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Sekera – Benning10:58
xG 0.45–1.05 (30%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).