Mon, Mar 26, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 4, New York Rangers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 415 | 010 | 08 | 433 |
| NYR | 07 | 116 | 17 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Jakub Jerabek · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 5:13WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 8:54WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 16:39WSHEvgeny KuznetsovSHAssists: Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–0
- P2 13:16NYRLias AnderssonAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 4:26NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Filip Chytil, Rob O'Gara · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:31WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:57NYRCody McLeod: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:43WSHMichal Kempny: Holding2 min
- P2 0:42WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 19:40NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:04NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:20WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:39
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana7:55
xG 0.35–0.37 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Beagle – Chiasson – Stephenson8:24
xG 0.40–0.70 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky12:16
xG 0.61–0.95 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Jerabek12:04
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov16:32
xG 0.69–0.68 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny11:07
xG 0.45–1.30 (26%)attempts 7–16goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hayes – Chytil11:46
xG 1.15–0.51 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Spooner – Vesey – Andersson6:55
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad9:43
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- McLeod – Namestnikov – Buchnevich6:44
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSproul – Gilmour11:31
xG 0.96–0.45 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- O'Gara – Skjei14:04
xG 1.09–0.75 (59%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Staal – Pionk13:19
xG 0.59–0.73 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).