Tue, Mar 27, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 1, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 04 | 07 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 123 |
| NSH | 111 | 010 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51NSHRoman JosiAssists: Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 16:45MINEric StaalAssists: Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Nino Niederreiter stopped
- 2. NSH Kyle Turris scored
- 3. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 4. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 5. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:15NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
- P2 2:18MINRyan Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:07NSHRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:07MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:31MINDaniel Winnik: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:45NSHViktor Arvidsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:45MINDevan Dubnyk: Embellishment2 min
- P2 17:22MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek7:24
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Cullen – Zucker – Greenway3:22
xG 0.03–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter8:00
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Coyle – Greenway5:04
xG 0.03–0.20 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Prosser – Seeler8:25
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Brodin – Murphy17:37
xG 0.55–0.63 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba17:55
xG 0.12–0.62 (17%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:31
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Bonino – Salomaki – Sissons11:51
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hartnell – Hartman9:07
xG 0.07–0.02 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala7:54
xG 0.03–0.30 (10%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:14
xG 0.69–0.20 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis15:29
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Emelin – Irwin12:06
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).