Tue, Mar 27, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 7, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 314 | 39 | 14 | 727 |
| EDM | 311 | 05 | 09 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 6:06EDMConnor McDavidSHAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Matt Benning · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 10:08EDMDrake CaggiulaPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 12:39CBJThomas VanekAssists: Ryan Murray, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P1 13:31CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Zach Werenski, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.26 xG2–3
- P1 16:40CBJThomas VanekAssists: David Savard, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 1:38CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P2 6:24CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P2 15:02CBJThomas VanekAssists: Boone Jenner, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.03 xG6–3
- P3 11:57CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.14 xG7–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:17EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:59CBJSonny Milano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:22EDMDrake Caggiula: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:41EDMMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:25CBJSonny Milano: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:29CBJIan Cole: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Jenner – Wennberg8:52
xG 0.77–0.31 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 4–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois12:26
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Bjorkstrand – Milano8:27
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Letestu – Calvert – Hannikainen7:58
xG 0.05–0.12 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski16:06
xG 0.85–0.24 (78%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Cole – Savard15:06
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Murray – Nutivaara14:08
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi5:06
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kassian – Khaira – Caggiula3:37
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lucic – Strome – Puljujarvi5:52
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Aberg – Slepyshev4:07
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nurse – Bear2:59
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse15:45
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Sekera – Benning11:04
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).