Wed, Mar 28, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 110 | 114 | 333 |
| TOR | 316 | 011 | 18 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05TORMitch MarnerAssists: Morgan Rielly, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 9:24TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 13:55TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P1 17:49FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Denis Malgin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 15:08FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mark Pysyk · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 11:48TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Connor Brown · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 18:34FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:26FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:41TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:04TORRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:32TORMitch Marner: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov12:45
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- McGinn – Trocheck – Huberdeau5:09
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin5:53
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Vatrano6:23
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson14:13
xG 1.00–0.75 (57%)attempts 20–14goals 1–2
- Yandle – Ekblad17:16
xG 0.96–1.16 (45%)attempts 19–21goals 1–2
- Matheson – Ekblad2:32
xG 0.01–0.25 (5%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:35
xG 1.47–0.47 (76%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Johnsson – Kapanen5:12
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner15:28
xG 0.60–0.88 (40%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews8:35
xG 0.27–0.86 (24%)attempts 4–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Dermott11:57
xG 0.96–0.27 (78%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Rielly15:36
xG 0.86–0.83 (51%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev15:46
xG 0.63–1.33 (32%)attempts 15–27goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).