Wed, Mar 28, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 118 | 09 | 110 | 00 | 237 |
| WSH | 18 | 013 | 111 | 11 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:42NYRKevin HayesPPAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 19:27WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 10:35NYRRyan SpoonerAssists: Lias Andersson, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 18:55WSHLars EllerAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- OT 0:38WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:59WSHNicklas Backstrom: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:25NYRRob O'Gara: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P1 13:44WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:57NYRBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:50NYRFilip Chytil: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:50NYRNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:50WSHMichal Kempny: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:50WSHMichal Kempny: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:37WSHJay Beagle: Holding2 min
- P3 4:21WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:21NYRJimmy Vesey: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Zibanejad9:21
xG 0.71–0.26 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hayes – Chytil11:10
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- McLeod – Namestnikov – Buchnevich3:27
xG 0.04–0.01 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Spooner – Namestnikov – Buchnevich2:11
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Gara – Skjei13:20
xG 1.02–0.69 (60%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Staal – Pionk16:25
xG 0.20–0.48 (30%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Sproul – Gilmour8:43
xG 0.23–0.72 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith-Pelly – Gersich8:41
xG 0.75–0.11 (88%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Beagle – Chiasson – Stephenson2:56
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky10:46
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:56
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Djoos2:13
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny9:38
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Orpik – Djoos6:18
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).