Thu, Mar 29, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 111 | 111 | 228 |
| BOS | 217 | 03 | 210 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:02BOSTim SchallerAssists: Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 19:34BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 1:44TBLJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 11:59BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 13:54TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Yanni Gourde, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 19:04BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (19)
- P1 8:12TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- P1 14:26BOSKevan Miller: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:29TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:18BOSBrian Gionta: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:41BOSRyan Donato: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:16TBLCory Conacher: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:16TBLCory Conacher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:16TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:16BOSTuukka Rask: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:16BOSTuukka Rask: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:10BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:16BOSDavid Pastrnak: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:16TBLDan Girardi: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:13TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:13BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54TBLJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:54BOSNoel Acciari: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:54BOSTim Schaller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Gourde – Point11:28
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Conacher – Paquette7:18
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller10:23
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli9:06
xG 0.10–0.34 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Coburn – McDonagh3:19
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh4:57
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Hedman2:57
xG 0.03–0.01 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Krejci – Donato4:36
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Wingels – Schaller – Acciari7:38
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:55
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Backes – Nash – Heinen6:22
xG 0.27–0.28 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo14:22
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Holden7:30
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Holden – Carlo2:35
xG 0.03–0.19 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).