Thu, Mar 29, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 18 | 114 | 11 | 435 |
| NJD | 112 | 19 | 110 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:19NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:44PITConor ShearyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 6:59PITKris LetangAssists: Carl Hagelin, Brian Dumoulin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 14:41NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Will Butcher · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 5:11NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 11:26PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Riley Sheahan · Tip-in, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 0:19PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Kris Letang · Snap, 0.36 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:27NJDPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:57PITBrian Dumoulin: Interference2 min
- P2 1:12PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:40PITJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:49PITMatt Hunwick: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:49NJDMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:37NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NJDJohn Moore: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Sheahan – Sheary7:49
xG 0.65–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:37
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Kuhnhackl – Jooris – Aston-Reese3:22
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Sheahan – Kuhnhackl2:27
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin17:44
xG 0.93–0.32 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Schultz – Oleksiak3:27
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Oleksiak8:17
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier12:02
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Noesen12:07
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Grabner – Gibbons – Zacha3:04
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall2:09
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson16:49
xG 1.12–0.61 (65%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Butcher – Mueller8:37
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Greene – Vatanen16:52
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).