Thu, Mar 29, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 29 | 09 | 124 | 342 |
| NSH | 214 | 111 | 27 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26NSHKyle TurrisAssists: P.K. Subban, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 6:55SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 10:14NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P1 12:05SJSBrenden DillonAssists: Jannik Hansen · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 10:38NSHCraig SmithAssists: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 5:54SJSMikkel BoedkerAssists: Chris Tierney, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 10:06NSHRyan EllisGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:43NSHNick BoninoENAssists: Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.70 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:46NSHKevin Fiala: Interference2 min
- P1 13:26SJSEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P2 4:52SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:11SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:23NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:51SJSBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P2 15:04NSHRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:51SJSMelker Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:48NSHScott Hartnell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:52NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:50NSHP.K. Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:07NSHRyan Ellis: Penalty shot net displaced0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Tierney10:47
xG 1.20–0.78 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Ward – Hansen – Sorensen5:49
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Hertl – Karlsson – Labanc6:48
xG 0.22–0.38 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Couture – Boedker – Meier9:53
xG 0.10–0.31 (25%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns12:56
xG 1.12–0.59 (66%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Burns – Vlasic2:45
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo10:14
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 1–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala6:49
xG 1.21–0.06 (95%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:22
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Fisher – Hartnell – Hartman5:01
xG 0.07–0.28 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bonino – Salomaki – Sissons7:32
xG 0.20–1.10 (16%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Irwin9:47
xG 0.67–0.58 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis13:07
xG 0.51–0.54 (49%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Subban – Ekholm15:07
xG 1.01–1.21 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).