Thu, Mar 29, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 111 | 013 | 231 |
| MIN | 17 | 311 | 14 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:02MINMikael GranlundSHAssists: Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:19MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:18MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 9:42DALDevin ShoreAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Marc Methot · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 19:49MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Eric Staal, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 19:42MINZach PariseENAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:03MINCharlie Coyle: Holding2 min
- P1 15:49MINRyan Murphy: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 6:48DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:47DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:41DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:33MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00MINDaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin14:59
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa4:43
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Smith – Janmark2:35
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Smith3:05
xG 0.02–0.01 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Pateryn3:03
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Methot2:36
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Methot – Johns4:35
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Granlund13:27
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter11:55
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Coyle – Greenway9:21
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek5:50
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba17:50
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Prosser – Olofsson3:17
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Prosser – Brodin3:59
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).