Thu, Mar 29, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Calgary Flames 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 213 | 15 | 210 | 528 |
| CGY | 014 | 013 | 111 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09CBJMarkus HannikainenAssists: Matt Calvert, Mark Letestu · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:23CBJPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 3:55CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Cam Atkinson, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 10:58CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Thomas Vanek, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 15:23CBJPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Sonny Milano, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–0
- P3 19:38CGYChris StewartAssists: Curtis Lazar, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:54CGYRasmus Andersson: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:31CBJIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 18:50CGYGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:13CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:36CBJMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Calvert – Hannikainen10:02
xG 0.68–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Letestu – Bjorkstrand – Milano2:08
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Milano – Dubois3:09
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Bjorkstrand – Milano4:15
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara17:17
xG 0.74–0.67 (52%)attempts 11–17goals 3–0
- Cole – Savard13:54
xG 0.51–1.26 (29%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski15:04
xG 0.72–1.48 (33%)attempts 11–23goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Backlund – Bennett11:32
xG 1.32–0.41 (76%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Stajan – Glass – Stewart4:14
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Frolik – Jankowski – Hathaway7:05
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ferland – Shore – Lazar14:11
xG 0.82–0.69 (54%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton11:00
xG 1.31–0.24 (85%)attempts 21–3goals 1–1
- Stone – Kulak3:50
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Giordano – Stone5:54
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).