Fri, Mar 30, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, New York Islanders 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 212 | 29 | 532 |
| NYI | 211 | 111 | 111 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:04NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Jordan Eberle, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:22TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 18:34NYIJohnny BoychukPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 7:56TORNikita ZaitsevAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 10:45NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Andrew Ladd, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 17:18TORMitch MarnerAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 2:01TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 6:28NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–4
- P3 16:02TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: William Nylander, Zach Hyman · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:15NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37TORDominic Moore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:06TORConnor Brown: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:18NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:18TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:49NYIJohnny Boychuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews10:56
xG 0.66–0.08 (89%)attempts 17–3goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown11:24
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Moore – Johnsson – Kapanen4:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner13:33
xG 0.60–0.88 (40%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev14:58
xG 0.59–0.37 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Rielly13:59
xG 0.64–0.47 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Carrick – Dermott9:31
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Wagner – Johnston8:02
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Barzal – Beauvillier2:11
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Lee – Fritz6:14
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier5:27
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock11:29
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Pelech2:27
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Pulock3:04
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).