Fri, Mar 30, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 217 | 25 | 430 |
| WSH | 06 | 110 | 05 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:35WSHMichal KempnyAssists: John Carlson, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 3:15CARDerek RyanAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 11:43CARJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 14:32CARSebastian AhoAssists: Valentin Zykov, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 17:50CARBrock McGinnENAssists: Jordan Staal, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:06CARJoakim Nordstrom: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:03WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:09CARLee Stempniak: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Di Giuseppe – Lindholm13:09
xG 0.67–0.28 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Nordstrom – Ryan6:59
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Williams – Staal – McGinn12:48
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Zykov – Aho14:00
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin18:19
xG 1.21–0.36 (77%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Dahlbeck – Fleury16:09
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin15:45
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith-Pelly – Vrana12:18
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky8:23
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Beagle – Connolly – Stephenson6:42
xG 0.11–0.33 (24%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson14:51
xG 0.44–0.79 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov17:10
xG 1.08–0.51 (68%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Orlov – Kempny2:25
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Orpik – Niskanen3:17
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).