Fri, Mar 30, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 015 | 010 | 08 | 033 |
| COL | 110 | 112 | 314 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:54COLSven AndrighettoPPGWGAssists: Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 8:14COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 6:25COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 8:39COLTyson JostAssists: Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 17:51COLSven AndrighettoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:45CHICollin Delia: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:49COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:49CHIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:29CHIDavid Kampf: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:43CHIAndreas Martinsen: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Comeau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Hinostroza – Kampf10:17
xG 0.65–0.06 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Saad – Schmaltz13:56
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Jurco – Martinsen10:34
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
- Sikura – DeBrincat – Ejdsell13:14
xG 0.13–0.58 (18%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Gustafsson16:00
xG 0.85–0.38 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson2:08
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Oesterle2:47
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Nieto12:37
xG 0.53–0.33 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Jost10:22
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Bourque – Yakupov – Compher10:21
xG 0.18–0.18 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Compher2:04
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Girard16:03
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Warsofsky – Alt13:02
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov18:26
xG 0.80–1.13 (41%)attempts 24–29goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).