Sat, Mar 31, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 09 | 015 | 131 |
| BOS | 212 | 312 | 09 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 11:15BOSNick HoldenAssists: David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:06BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Ryan Donato, David Krejci · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 1:32BOSRyan DonatoAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 13:40BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Backes, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–4
- P2 16:32BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Kevan Miller, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.39 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 1:57FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:57BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:29FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:29BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:29BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:50FLAMicheal Haley: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:53BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:38FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:38BOSNoel Acciari: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:50
xG 1.22–0.15 (89%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- McCann – Borgstrom – Mamin7:23
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley8:33
xG 0.13–0.30 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov15:15
xG 0.52–0.87 (37%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson13:38
xG 0.73–0.21 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Petrovic – Weegar13:24
xG 0.65–0.66 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
- Yandle – Ekblad20:47
xG 0.93–1.22 (43%)attempts 15–24goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:53
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Backes – Wingels – Heinen2:07
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Krejci – Donato – DeBrusk11:25
xG 1.03–1.05 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 4–1
- Backes – Nash – Heinen5:37
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Holden9:46
xG 0.49–0.22 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Krug – Carlo14:09
xG 0.51–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Holden – Carlo2:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).