Sat, Mar 31, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 312 | 07 | 329 |
| TOR | 010 | 19 | 010 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:02TORPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 8:30WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jacob Trouba · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 9:40WPGDustin ByfuglienPPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 17:24WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Adam Lowry, Brandon Tanev · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:31TORKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:01WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:42WPGBen Chiarot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:57TORJake Gardiner: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:03WPGMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:48WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:53TORRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Ehlers – Laine11:47
xG 0.67–0.42 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev7:37
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor14:21
xG 0.47–0.65 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Armia10:31
xG 0.10–1.05 (9%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey16:38
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Myers – Chiarot13:47
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrow15:29
xG 0.38–1.18 (24%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:43
xG 0.90–0.68 (57%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner13:33
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews11:14
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Komarov – Kapanen5:41
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev12:39
xG 1.13–0.51 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Rielly10:07
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner2:56
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).