Sat, Mar 31, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 211 | 04 | 011 | 226 |
| PIT | 316 | 07 | 210 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42MTLJeff PetryAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:41PITConor ShearyAssists: Riley Sheahan, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P1 10:18PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.32 xG1–2
- P1 14:36PITCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P1 19:49MTLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 7:18PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 9:07PITRiley SheahanPPAssists: Olli Maatta, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:57MTLMichael McCarron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:33MTLJordie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:05PITJake Guentzel: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:36MTLDaniel Carr: Holding2 min
- P3 6:26MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:32MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Drouin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Gallagher – Drouin13:28
xG 1.17–0.82 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – McCarron – Carr9:08
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen12:14
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Shaw – Hudon – Scherbak11:23
xG 0.17–1.00 (15%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Juulsen14:46
xG 0.80–0.76 (51%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Benn17:06
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Lernout15:53
xG 0.44–0.76 (37%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel14:17
xG 1.05–0.64 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Sheahan – Sheary11:57
xG 0.88–0.59 (60%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin10:45
xG 0.47–0.28 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Kuhnhackl – Jooris – Aston-Reese5:37
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Oleksiak14:19
xG 1.30–0.21 (86%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Schultz – Maatta13:29
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin18:10
xG 0.68–1.17 (37%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).