Sat, Mar 31, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 7, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 114 | 515 | 17 | 736 |
| NSH | 29 | 29 | 018 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 2:59NSHP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 17:00NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Nick Bonino · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 2:00NSHKyle TurrisAssists: Craig Smith, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 5:45BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 7:20BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 12:50NSHNick BoninoAssists: Ryan Ellis, Austin Watson · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–4
- P2 15:04BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.29 xG4–4
- P2 17:18BUFSam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–4
- P2 19:00BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–4
- P3 8:17BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.04 xG7–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:07BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:41NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:37NSHKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:09NSHScott Hartnell: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 14:09NSHScott Hartnell: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 4:56BUFZemgus Girgensons: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:32BUFBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:58NSHKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:24NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:36BUFBrendan Guhle: Interference2 min
- P3 19:08NSHAustin Watson: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:08NSHAustin Watson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:08NSHAustin Watson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Girgensons – Eichel9:24
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
- Okposo – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt8:07
xG 0.44–0.25 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- O'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart9:56
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Larsson – Wilson2:38
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Nelson12:25
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Falk – Nelson2:22
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Falk – Antipin8:23
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Watson – Sissons8:40
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Johansen – Arvidsson – Tolvanen4:54
xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hartnell – Hartman5:47
xG 0.02–0.21 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Turris – Smith – Fiala7:55
xG 0.29–0.51 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Ellis – Ekholm11:38
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Emelin – Bitetto2:08
xG 0.04–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Bitetto11:18
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).