Sat, Mar 31, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 011 | 113 | 134 |
| DAL | 113 | 115 | 28 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49DALJason SpezzaAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 8:00DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 0:19DALRadek FaksaSHAssists: Tyler Pitlick · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 1:29MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 19:13DALTyler SeguinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:33MINNick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:59MINNate Prosser: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:32DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:53MINDevan Dubnyk: Interference2 min
- P2 19:45DALRemi Elie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:40DALAntoine Roussel: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek8:11
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Greenway7:04
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter6:42
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Cullen – Coyle – Greenway3:44
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba4:32
xG 0.61–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Seeler – Dumba4:26
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Seeler – Murphy2:16
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin11:41
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Shore – Elie6:45
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Smith – Janmark8:22
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa10:45
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn13:37
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Methot – Klingberg13:47
xG 0.91–0.62 (59%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell2:23
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).