Sat, Mar 31, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 112 | 015 | 236 |
| CGY | 37 | 05 | 08 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41EDMAnton SlepyshevAssists: Zack Kassian · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 6:43CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 11:54CGYGarnet HathawaySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 15:28CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Michael Stone, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 12:41EDMMichael CammalleriAssists: Andrej Sekera, Zack Kassian · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:41CGYSpencer Foo: Delaying game bench2 min
- P1 10:08CGYTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:07EDMRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:19EDMDrake Caggiula: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:46EDMLeon Draisaitl: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:22EDMDrake Caggiula: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:22CGYMark Jankowski: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:22CGYMark Jankowski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:57EDMMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:57EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:57CGYMike Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:18CGYNicholas Shore: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:50CGYTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:50EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:59EDMJujhar Khaira: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:16CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestAberg – Khaira – Caggiula7:17
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Strome – Puljujarvi8:42
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Kassian – Slepyshev9:03
xG 0.57–0.63 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Rattie – Draisaitl – McDavid10:48
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell12:37
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 2–1
- Larsson – Nurse13:55
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Bear – Auvitu10:26
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Shore – Foo9:39
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Frolik – Backlund10:08
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1
- Ferland – Jankowski – Bennett4:22
xG 0.03–0.05 (36%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Glass – Lazar – Hathaway7:24
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Stone2:46
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton11:14
xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Stone – Kulak12:41
xG 0.57–0.51 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).