Sun, Apr 1, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 2, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 010 | 214 | 232 |
| MTL | 17 | 08 | 011 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:51MTLDaniel CarrPPAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 0:26NJDNico HischierAssists: Sami Vatanen, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 15:53NJDTaylor HallSHGWGAssists: Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:38MTLMike Reilly: Delaying game2 min
- P1 17:58NJDKeith Kinkaid: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:51NJDPatrick Maroon: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 7:24MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:21MTLJordie Benn: Holding2 min
- P3 1:16MTLKarl Alzner: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:45NJDTaylor Hall: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:53NJDBen Lovejoy: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:34MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Shaw
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Palmieri – Zacha4:13
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Noesen – Wood – Zacha2:35
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Hall – Hischier5:02
xG 0.04–0.04 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zajac – Maroon – Coleman5:07
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Vatanen15:02
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Moore – Mueller12:09
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher8:50
xG 0.15–0.54 (21%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – McCarron – Carr7:02
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Byron – Gallagher – Drouin9:46
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Shaw – Rychel – Scherbak7:17
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen10:27
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Benn11:55
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Benn – Lernout2:18
xG 0.03–0.03 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Alzner – Juulsen10:30
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).