Sun, Apr 1, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 111 | 110 | 334 |
| PIT | 011 | 015 | 111 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Andre Burakovsky, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 13:46WSHDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 0:23WSHTom WilsonAssists: Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 16:15PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 6:47WSHChandler Stephenson: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:45PITConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:10PITCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:57WSHBrett Connolly: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:37WSHMatt Niskanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:38WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:50WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:50PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:08WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:17PITZachary Aston-Reese: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:39PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:59PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P3 18:59PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59WSHT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:59PITJustin Schultz: Game misconduct team staff0 min
- P3 18:59PITEvgeni Malkin: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky10:33
xG 0.25–0.08 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:49
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Vrana6:58
xG 0.36–0.76 (32%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny12:51
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kempny – Jerabek2:30
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Jerabek10:48
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel11:05
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin2:59
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Sheahan – Sheary5:18
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Sheahan – Sheary2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Maatta10:15
xG 0.66–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Oleksiak9:52
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin13:52
xG 0.69–1.16 (37%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).