Sun, Apr 1, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 28 | 012 | 01 | 332 |
| ANA | 116 | 015 | 29 | 12 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16COLAlexander KerfootUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:08ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:04COLTyson JostPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 12:10COLTyson JostAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 7:43ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Corey Perry, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 9:19ANARyan KeslerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 1:34ANAOndrej KaseGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:41COLNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:44ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P1 12:13COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:13ANARyan Kesler: Embellishment2 min
- P1 19:54ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:36ANARyan Kesler: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:57COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P2 7:57COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:57ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:26ANABrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Yakupov – Compher5:56
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto14:38
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Jost8:53
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:25
xG 0.51–0.96 (35%)attempts 16–22goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Warsofsky – Alt7:09
xG 0.16–0.20 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Girard15:11
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
- Barrie – Zadorov15:09
xG 0.69–1.00 (41%)attempts 17–29goals 2–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:47
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 24–13goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell9:34
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase7:29
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Ritchie4:12
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm18:19
xG 1.10–0.59 (65%)attempts 27–20goals 2–0
- Fowler – Montour16:36
xG 0.81–0.62 (57%)attempts 29–15goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Pettersson8:51
xG 0.10–0.44 (18%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).