Mon, Apr 2, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 6, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 313 | 213 | 114 | 640 |
| OTT | 111 | 213 | 213 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Adam Lowry, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
- P1 11:36WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Adam Lowry, Andrew Copp · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 11:57WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P1 18:26OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Matt Duchene, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 1:28OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 6:25WPGBrandon TanevSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 11:58OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Colin White, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P2 12:46WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 4:47OTTChristian WolaninAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
- P3 14:38WPGMathieu PerreaultPPGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.41 xG6–4
- P3 18:55OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.60 xG6–5
Penalties (12)
- P2 0:57WPGBlake Wheeler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 6:15WPGBlake Wheeler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:40OTTMagnus Paajarvi: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:24WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:17OTTTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:58OTTBobby Ryan: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 17:15WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:34WPGJacob Trouba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:10WPGTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:10WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:10OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:10OTTBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor10:18
xG 1.32–0.61 (68%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev10:09
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Little – Perreault – Armia11:26
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Laine9:45
xG 0.61–0.69 (47%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey15:29
xG 1.32–0.63 (68%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Morrow – Poolman13:37
xG 1.21–0.55 (69%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Myers – Chiarot14:28
xG 0.44–0.95 (32%)attempts 10–27goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Ryan – Dzingel – Pageau3:58
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 9–4goals 0–2
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi7:22
xG 0.49–0.62 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Duchene – White10:42
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Chabot13:09
xG 0.82–0.56 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Wolanin2:48
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Ceci – Wolanin7:07
xG 0.53–0.43 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).