Mon, Apr 2, 2018·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 315 | 111 | 434 |
| STL | 17 | 114 | 015 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 0:51WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 2:39WSHAlex ChiassonAssists: Jakub Jerabek · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 7:54WSHAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 11:38STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Robert Bortuzzo · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:29WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:24WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:47STLJaden Schwartz: Holding2 min
- P2 19:50WSHMatt Niskanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:51WSHJakub Vrana: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:48WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:53STLKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith-Pelly – Gersich9:00
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Connolly – Burakovsky10:39
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Chiasson – Stephenson – Vrana5:41
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:32
xG 0.29–1.18 (20%)attempts 12–24goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Jerabek11:11
xG 0.85–0.22 (80%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Carlson – Kempny13:53
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov18:29
xG 0.76–1.32 (36%)attempts 12–31goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:45
xG 0.73–0.61 (54%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Steen – Brodziak – Berglund11:18
xG 0.59–0.49 (54%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
- Thorburn – Sundqvist – Barbashev3:25
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Thompson8:39
xG 0.10–0.41 (19%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson18:20
xG 1.03–0.75 (58%)attempts 23–20goals 1–0
- Parayko – Dunn11:10
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Butler – Bortuzzo12:28
xG 0.40–0.64 (39%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).