Tue, Apr 3, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New York Islanders 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 06 | 315 | 431 |
| NYI | 110 | 317 | 110 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:15NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:07PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Nolan Patrick, Oskar Lindblom · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 3:43NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Thomas Hickey, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 11:06NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 16:27NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 4:07PHINolan PatrickPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 8:16PHINolan PatrickPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 13:04PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 13:32NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:05PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:26PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:52NYIRoss Johnston: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:01NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:04PHIJakub Voracek: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:00NYIJohnny Boychuk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00NYIJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHINolan Patrick: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00PHINolan Patrick: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier2:37
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Read – Raffl5:30
xG 0.02–0.07 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny8:34
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal8:01
xG 0.36–0.62 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Sanheim13:11
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov16:56
xG 0.41–0.99 (29%)attempts 10–18goals 1–2
- Manning – Gudas16:11
xG 0.41–1.17 (26%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Beauvillier12:54
xG 1.62–0.51 (76%)attempts 21–9goals 2–1
- Clutterbuck – Wagner – Johnston9:28
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz12:04
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee9:51
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock18:05
xG 1.29–0.55 (70%)attempts 21–22goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:54
xG 0.95–0.36 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Hickey – Mayfield15:02
xG 0.42–0.41 (50%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).