Tue, Apr 3, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 39 | 13 | 012 | 03 | 427 |
| CBJ | 110 | 120 | 29 | 12 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Deflected, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 6:16CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Seth Jones, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 11:12DETDarren HelmAssists: Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 18:37DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 0:31DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 10:50CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Seth Jones, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 9:22CBJSonny MilanoAssists: Zach Werenski, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Tip-in, 0.27 xG4–3
- P3 17:44CBJArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Seth Jones, Sergei Bobrovsky · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–4
- OT 2:55CBJPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Ryan Murray, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:18DETNick Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:00DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:00CBJAlex Broadhurst: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:19CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:44DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:20DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:23DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:06CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi12:31
xG 0.55–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Athanasiou5:50
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Frk – Svechnikov3:12
xG 0.03–0.09 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin10:17
xG 0.27–0.97 (22%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser7:05
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Hicketts8:04
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kronwall – DeKeyser2:30
xG 0.03–0.05 (35%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois14:56
xG 0.80–0.45 (64%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Letestu – Broadhurst – Bjorkstrand4:05
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Milano4:13
xG 0.04–0.03 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Vanek – Jenner – Wennberg12:06
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski16:04
xG 0.99–0.61 (62%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Johnson – Murray15:20
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Savard13:38
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).