Tue, Apr 3, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 1, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 018 | 010 | 118 | 146 |
| FLA | 114 | 012 | 17 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:30FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jamie McGinn, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 10:33FLAColton SceviourGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aaron Ekblad · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 16:08NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Ellis · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (1)
- P2 11:16NSHNick Bonino: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Hartman – Fiala7:18
xG 0.52–0.00 (99%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Bonino – Arvidsson – Tolvanen6:27
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson5:52
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 13–2goals 1–1
- Fisher – Watson – Sissons10:06
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm20:06
xG 1.23–0.60 (67%)attempts 28–16goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis21:26
xG 1.28–1.19 (52%)attempts 33–29goals 1–1
- Emelin – Irwin11:17
xG 0.20–0.46 (31%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Dadonov – Barkov13:42
xG 0.74–0.42 (63%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Haley – Mamin7:43
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – McCann – Vatrano10:09
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- McGinn – Trocheck – Huberdeau14:49
xG 0.39–1.03 (27%)attempts 10–24goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Weegar15:21
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad19:50
xG 0.92–0.95 (49%)attempts 21–29goals 2–1
- Pysyk – Matheson18:00
xG 0.53–1.12 (32%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).