Tue, Apr 3, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 216 | 16 | 06 | 1 | 539 |
| VAN | 16 | 06 | 310 | 03 | 0 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28VGKBrandon PirriAssists: Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 19:39VANNikolay GoldobinAssists: Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:27VGKBrandon PirriAssists: Alex Tuch, William Karlsson · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:19VGKTomas TatarAssists: Shea Theodore, William Karlsson · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 2:17VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 4:06VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–2
- P3 8:21VANBrandon SutterAssists: Brendan Gaunce, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 10:53VANNikolay GoldobinAssists: Alex Biega, Ashton Sautner · Deflected, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. VAN Nikolay Goldobin stopped
- 2. VGK Brandon Pirri stopped
- 3. VAN Sam Gagner stopped
- 4. VGK William Karlsson stopped
- 5. VAN Daniel Sedin stopped
- 6. VGK Alex Tuch stopped
- 7. VAN Henrik Sedin stopped
- 8. VGK Shea Theodore scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:25VANMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min
- P3 0:54VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:59VANTroy Stecher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:01VGKTomas Tatar: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 5:36VGKColin Miller: Holding2 min
- OT 0:15VANJake Virtanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Karlsson – Tuch13:00
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Neal – Tatar – Eakin12:51
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Lindberg – Carrier – Carpenter6:58
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek9:04
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt18:01
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Miller – Hunt10:28
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Engelland – Theodore16:43
xG 0.60–0.60 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Gagner13:03
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Sutter – Gaunce3:34
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Sutter – Virtanen – Goldobin5:14
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Horvat – Goldobin3:31
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher14:19
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Edler – Biega3:03
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Pouliot16:48
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).