Thu, Apr 5, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 27 | 06 | 19 | 322 |
| PHI | 115 | 113 | 26 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45CARKlas DahlbeckAssists: Jeff Skinner, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 14:38PHIMichael RafflAssists: Claude Giroux, Brandon Manning · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 14:52CARSebastian AhoAssists: Valentin Zykov, Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 14:56PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–2
- P3 10:18PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 13:41CARJordan StaalAssists: Justin Williams, Roland McKeown · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 14:15PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Nolan Patrick, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:53PHITravis Konecny: Holding2 min
- P1 11:53CARBrock McGinn: Embellishment2 min
- P2 9:57PHIBrandon Manning: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:57CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min
- P2 11:48PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Zykov – Aho3:54
xG 0.30–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Teravainen – McGinn – Aho7:47
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Di Giuseppe – Lindholm2:17
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Zykov – Lindholm7:10
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Fleury – McKeown11:50
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin14:38
xG 0.42–0.66 (39%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
- Dahlbeck – Slavin18:33
xG 0.61–1.31 (32%)attempts 21–23goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Raffl13:02
xG 0.94–0.40 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 3–1
- Lehtera – Read – Laughton7:28
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick14:34
xG 0.59–0.18 (76%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Filppula – Simmonds – Konecny11:12
xG 0.25–0.76 (24%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas15:59
xG 1.10–0.52 (68%)attempts 22–15goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov19:18
xG 1.07–0.50 (68%)attempts 21–18goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Sanheim13:27
xG 0.45–0.56 (45%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).