Thu, Apr 5, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Nashville Predators 4, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 17 | 214 | 429 |
| WSH | 06 | 217 | 19 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, P.K. Subban · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 4:29WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:47WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 14:03NSHCraig SmithAssists: Roman Josi, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 1:07WSHEvgeny KuznetsovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 8:19NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 14:33NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Ellis · Backhand, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:51WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:03NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P2 3:43NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:31NSHP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:25NSHKyle Turris: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:22WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:59NSHNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:45
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Bonino – Sissons – Hartman11:47
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Turris – Smith – Fiala11:10
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Fisher – Watson – Salomaki10:13
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis12:04
xG 0.90–0.11 (89%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Emelin – Irwin3:55
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Irwin4:34
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith-Pelly – Connolly11:51
xG 0.31–0.16 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky12:07
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Boyd – Stephenson3:03
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Boyd – Wilson – Stephenson3:33
xG 0.10–0.35 (23%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov19:11
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Orpik – Djoos10:27
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny17:03
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 17–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).