Thu, Apr 5, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 214 | 16 | 428 |
| DET | 18 | 111 | 17 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46MTLNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Noah Juulsen, Karl Alzner · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 18:50DETDylan LarkinAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Martin Frk · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:13DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 11:39MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 14:39MTLNicolas DeslauriersUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 2:23MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Logan Shaw · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 3:09DETDarren HelmAssists: Dylan Larkin, Luke Witkowski · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:12MTLJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:35DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:40MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:10MTLMike Reilly: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Drouin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Gallagher – Drouin12:59
xG 0.58–0.03 (95%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Shaw – Galchenyuk – Hudon7:16
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – McCarron – Carr8:11
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 2–1
- de la Rose – Lehkonen – Rychel7:05
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Schlemko13:54
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Petry – Alzner2:08
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly2:30
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi13:08
xG 1.33–0.11 (92%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Booth – Abdelkader6:55
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin11:28
xG 0.08–0.63 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ouellet10:45
xG 1.36–0.23 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Ouellet2:18
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).