Thu, Apr 5, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 1, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 015 | 110 | 07 | 132 |
| WPG | 18 | 19 | 09 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:13WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Kyle Connor · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 12:59WPGPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Ben Chiarot, Nikolaj Ehlers · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 15:14CGYSpencer FooAssists: Michael Stone, Mikael Backlund · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:47WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:17CGYTanner Glass: Interference2 min
- P2 16:11CGYBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:42CGYMark Jankowski: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:30WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:52CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:52CGYMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:52WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGlass – Lazar – Hathaway7:03
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Foo11:22
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Shore12:00
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Frolik – Jankowski7:25
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBartkowski – Andersson15:24
xG 0.78–0.21 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Kulak13:00
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Bartkowski – Hamilton2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Stastny – Ehlers – Laine10:09
xG 0.17–0.15 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Roslovic3:41
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Roslovic4:51
xG 0.02–0.06 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:23
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Byfuglien – Morrow16:37
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Trouba – Morrissey16:13
xG 0.26–0.42 (39%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Myers – Chiarot12:56
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).