Thu, Apr 5, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 4, Los Angeles Kings 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 04 | 213 | 00 | 427 |
| LAK | 17 | 314 | 05 | 12 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55LAKDustin BrownAssists: Christian Folin, Tanner Pearson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 3:12MINRyan MurphyAssists: Nick Seeler, Daniel Winnik · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 5:02MINMathew DumbaAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 7:42LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 12:57LAKTobias RiederAssists: Christian Folin, Daniel Brickley · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 19:10LAKDustin BrownAssists: Tanner Pearson, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 5:42MINEric StaalAssists: Mathew Dumba, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 9:24MINNate ProsserSHAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 0:23LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 18:45LAKAnze Kopitar: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:07MINRyan Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:12MINNick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:12LAKTanner Pearson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:35MINMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:16MINMikko Koivu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:30MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:49MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:49LAKKyle Clifford: Charging2 min
- P3 10:49LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:49MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:54MINCarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:46MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Niederreiter – Eriksson Ek3:10
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Ennis – Zucker9:44
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund10:21
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek4:17
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Soucy8:43
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Murphy – Soucy3:43
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Prosser – Seeler2:26
xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Pearson13:40
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Thompson – Andreoff – Amadio5:53
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Kempe9:36
xG 0.04–0.28 (12%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Rieder10:01
xG 0.19–0.48 (28%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFolin – Brickley7:42
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Martinez12:40
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Martinez – Folin4:16
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).