Fri, Apr 6, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 013 | 016 | 035 |
| PIT | 08 | 29 | 26 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:25PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 7:31PITJake GuentzelAssists: Justin Schultz, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 6:55PITPhil KesselAssists: Riley Sheahan, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
- P3 16:53PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.12 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:43PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:43PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:27OTTBobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:21PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:37OTTRyan Dzingel: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 5:26OTTFilip Chlapik: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:43OTTMike Hoffman: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:54PITCarl Hagelin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:57OTTAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Duchene – Dzingel3:47
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Duchene – Dzingel3:00
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – McCormick – Chlapik4:17
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Duchene – White2:56
xG 0.01–0.02 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Wolanin3:53
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Claesson – Chabot3:36
xG 0.15–0.12 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:14
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin7:56
xG 0.66–0.08 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Sheahan – Sheary6:55
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel8:49
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Kuhnhackl – Jooris – Aston-Reese8:52
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Ruhwedel12:05
xG 0.98–0.33 (75%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:39
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Schultz – Maatta12:18
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).