Fri, Apr 6, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 3, Anaheim Ducks 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 15 | 114 | 326 |
| ANA | 313 | 115 | 15 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Josh Manson, Andrew Cogliano · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:33ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.27 xG0–2
- P1 11:13DALMarc MethotAssists: Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 19:40ANADerek GrantAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 4:36ANAJosh MansonGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 7:49DALRadek FaksaAssists: Greg Pateryn, Tyler Pitlick · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 2:52DALJamie BennAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 14:35ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:34DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:06DALBrett Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P2 1:36DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:38DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:31ANANick Ritchie: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Shore – Smith6:01
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Janmark10:29
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:49
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 2–2
- Benn – Seguin – Ritchie2:44
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell13:24
xG 0.76–0.54 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
- Lindell – Honka3:00
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Honka7:27
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell15:56
xG 0.96–0.43 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–2
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase10:33
xG 0.54–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:00
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Chimera – Grant – Brown5:36
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm15:42
xG 1.19–0.37 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- Beauchemin – Montour14:29
xG 0.78–0.68 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Welinski – Pettersson13:42
xG 0.14–0.40 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).