Sat, Apr 7, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 19 | 18 | 326 |
| WSH | 29 | 17 | 210 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:10NJDNico HischierAssists: Patrick Maroon, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 19:32WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Brett Connolly, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 3:44WSHMichal KempnyAssists: Shane Gersich, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 19:07NJDMiles WoodAssists: Patrick Maroon, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 2:04NJDPatrick MaroonAssists: Pavel Zacha, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 5:11WSHAlex OvechkinGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 11:50WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Michal Kempny, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:29WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:29NJDNico Hischier: Embellishment2 min
- P2 5:57WSHMichal Kempny: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:15WSHAlex Chiasson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:15NJDPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:14NJDJimmy Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:47NJDNico Hischier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Coleman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Maroon – Wood – Zacha10:42
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Gibbons – Coleman – Noesen10:15
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Boyle – Grabner – Hayes7:22
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Stafford – Bratt – Hischier9:52
xG 0.26–0.93 (22%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher14:22
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Severson – Butcher2:18
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Greene – Mueller15:49
xG 0.38–0.88 (30%)attempts 5–20goals 0–3
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Connolly – Burakovsky11:40
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:45
xG 0.94–0.67 (58%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Vrana9:11
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Stephenson – Gersich7:33
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny14:35
xG 0.89–0.54 (62%)attempts 18–11goals 4–0
- Orpik – Jerabek15:01
xG 0.90–0.57 (61%)attempts 13–16goals 0–2
- Niskanen – Orlov18:05
xG 0.77–0.49 (61%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).