Sat, Apr 7, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 111 | 014 | 131 |
| WPG | 111 | 315 | 013 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:12WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 0:34WPGKyle ConnorGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 3:56WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Adam Lowry, Brandon Tanev · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 6:35WPGAndrew CoppSHAssists: Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 9:08CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Patrick Kane, Connor Murphy · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:43CHIJan Rutta: Holding2 min
- P1 14:12CHINick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:59CHIAndreas Martinsen: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:45CHIConnor Murphy: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:40WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Kane – Schmaltz5:52
xG 0.81–0.35 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Saad – Martinsen – Ejdsell4:01
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Sikura – DeBrincat – Ejdsell2:48
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Sikura – DeBrincat3:37
xG 0.07–0.30 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHillman – Rutta9:45
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson10:53
xG 0.41–0.60 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook12:46
xG 0.16–1.45 (10%)attempts 9–20goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor11:46
xG 1.21–0.21 (85%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev11:29
xG 0.87–0.09 (90%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Little – Perreault – Armia10:14
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Laine10:07
xG 0.53–0.92 (37%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrow16:25
xG 1.43–0.38 (79%)attempts 27–11goals 1–0
- Myers – Chiarot15:50
xG 1.06–0.14 (88%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey15:20
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).