Sat, Apr 7, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 013 | 110 | 18 | 231 |
| NSH | 315 | 010 | 12 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:04NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 19:59NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 7:55CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 7:20CBJBrandon DubinskySHAssists: Markus Hannikainen, Scott Harrington · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 19:20NSHFilip ForsbergENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:12CBJIan Cole: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:41NSHAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:15CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:16CBJIan Cole: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:59CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Bench2 min
- P3 6:37CBJIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P3 17:10CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:10NSHAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:20NSHAustin Watson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:20CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Broadhurst – Jenner10:06
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Letestu – Anderson – Robinson5:28
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Anderson – Milano – Dubois3:33
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Letestu – Bjorkstrand – Robinson3:30
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Chorney13:02
xG 0.90–0.60 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Harrington2:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Harrington – Kukan10:59
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Johansen – Forsberg9:11
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Watson – Salomaki9:51
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala10:27
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Sissons – Hartman10:00
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Irwin13:51
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Emelin – Subban12:05
xG 0.79–0.56 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis12:36
xG 0.48–0.55 (46%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).